Historic Elections Tomorrow (9-27) in Catalunya (Updated with results)

Independence Rally 9-25. Barcelona, 2015

[NOTE: For an excellent, detailed, overview of the significance of the vote, the political parties involved, what the polls say, and so on, see THIS SUMMARY in The Guardian, a UK newspaper.]

Today is a “day of reflection” during which no political activity is allowed. It is a time for each voter to quietly contemplate how they will mark their ballot on Sunday.

Yes, tomorrow could be vewy, vewy intewesting.

Throughout Catalunya, tomorrow, citizens will go to the polls to make their selections for members of their provincial parliament–but, most importantly, it is billed as a vote for or against independence from Spain.

Why is this so, if the ballot actually does not include a specific referendum on independence? Well, if the majority of the Catalan voters select pro-independence candidates then these politicians, once in office, have promised to continue down the road toward an official declaration of independence from the government in Madrid.

Secession, essentially.

What will really happen is anyone’s guess. The polls seem to show a tilt toward independence.

If the vote indeed goes that way, what will Madrid do? Send in the tanks? That would look pretty bad in a peace-loving European Union, especially given that the Catalan independence movement so far has been extremely orderly and peaceful. I see whole families and kids out with their flags at the demonstrations. No extremists or Molotov cocktail-throwing radicals here!

There are pretty good arguments to be made on both sides–and I personally watched that take place last night on the street at the rally in the photograph above. I watched a man with a Catalan flag over his shoulder in a deep, animated, yet relatively cordial, discussion with another man from the party whose slogan is “Junts Millor”, or “Better Together”.

I am not sure how much of the rest o’ the world is paying attention, but there is a very palpable energy and excitement in the air in these parts. What will happen…what will happen?

Standby for an update once the results are known late Sunday night!

EXTRA, EXTRA!!! September 28, 2015: Post Election Update!!!

Well, if you are a supporter of the independence movement you are thrilled because your politicians now have a majority of the seats in the Catalan Parliament–and they have promised to continue pursuing independence (possibly within 18 months!) from Madrid.

On the other hand, if you are a Spanish unionist, you are happy because the separatist candidates did not win a clear majority of the popular vote–and two separatist parties have to band together to make up an absolute secessionist majority of seats in the Catalan Parliament.

So, it was sort of a mixed bag. This will ensure that the Spanish political scene will remain a little unstable into the foreseeable future. As happy as the Catalan independentistas might be, there is a whole pile of work lining the long and winding road ahead–and Rajoy’s Partido Popular will probably need to reassess their so-far failed approach to address Catalan grievances.

Here are links to two pretty thorough New York Times articles (in English) in which the election results are discussed:

Vote Fails to Settle Dispute on Secession by Catalonia