The Catalan Independence Referendum (or, “participation process”)

9 Nov Referendum. Barcelona, 2014

For three hundred years, many Catalans have been waiting and hoping for this day (9N, or the 9th of November). Today, they are going to the polls to answer two simple, but highly charged, questions:

1) Do you want Catalonia to be a State? Yes or No

In the case of the affirmative…

2) Do you want this State to be independent? Yes or No

For those unfamiliar with Catalan history, a little Googling will show you that Catalonia has had a very long history.

One of the first European Parliaments, the Corts Generals, was established in Catalonia in 1283. An independent spirit, representative government, economic ingenuity, and stubbornness, are all common Catalan historical threads that are deeply rooted. In fact, from the 12th to the 15th centuries, the Catalan empire, allied with Aragon, eventually spread across the Mediterranean as far as Greece.

The Catalans have their own language, literature, and arts–and, today, a population of some 7.5 million (about the same as Switzerland). It is indeed a separate culture quite different from the “Spanish culture” advertised to the world under Franco’s regime–an artificial cultural view of Spain many today still might hold (you know, bullfights and flamenco…that sort of thing).

It was in 1714, when Catalonia cast their lot with the losing coalition in the War of the Spanish Succession, that they finally lost their independence and came under the control of the Bourbon Crown, which is still the symbolic ruling royal family of Spain today.

This vote brings up some interesting questions. To wit:

–Should culturally identifiable regions within a modern political State be allowed self-determination?

–Another way of saying it: What should take precedence…the will and political architecture of the unifying State, or the political aspirations of the people of certain regions of that State?

–What percent of the Catalan population will vote and will the vote be truly representative of all Catalans? (A high turn out is key to legitimacy.)

–Madrid considers the vote illegal, so if the Catalans overwhelmingly vote “Sí” in large numbers for independence, what will be the next steps from Madrid and from Barcelona?

–How much support from the European Union and the rest of the world does Catalonia have for independence?

–What will be the reaction of other sections of Spain with desires for independence, especially the Basque Country and Galicia.

–Will the recent Scottish referendum have any effect on how the Catalans vote? (The Scots said “No”, if you remember.)

All in all, an interesting situation. By this evening, we should know the outcome of the vote. After that, Catalonia and Madrid will both be pushing on into unknown political territory…or not.

POSTSCRIPT (after the vote)…The Results (rounded):

Yes-Yes 81%

Yes-No 10%

Yes-Blank 1%

No 4.5%

Blank 0.6%

Other 3%

An overwhelming expression of the will of the people? Perhaps. It could also very well be that the results are skewed as the most likely voters were those who enthusiastically support independence. Estimates of eligible voter participation range from 36-41%, which is unfortunate. Had, say, 60-80% of the electorate participated, with the above results, it would have been an even stronger statement for independence. What is the opinion of those who did not vote? What would be the result in a full-up, legal, max participation (or even obligatory) referendum? Those are the questions.

It will be interesting to see the next steps by the Catalan and Spanish leaders. Madrid will likely simply stall, refuse to make any changes, and hope it all goes away. The Catalans will surely step up the pressure.

Some selected images from a past independence demonstration in Barcelona (July 10, 2010):